Now that I’ve listed six 2008 playoff teams that won’t get back to the postseason in 2009 and six non-playoff teams that will take their places, common sense and a copy of the league’s lineup of teams will permit a list of the other 14 non-playoff teams to be generated fairly easily.
But this is a three-part series. So I’ve got to emphasize six of those non-playoff teams from 2008 that will remain non-playoff teams in 2009. Otherwise, it’ll throw the whole thing off.
So here’s six who didn’t make it last year and whom some might think will make it back, but I don’t.
An offseason spending spree capped by the unexpected arrival of an aging quarterback created high expectations for the Jets in 2008.
When Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s knee imploded in the first quarter of the first game of the season, the expectations were even higher.
When the Jets reeled off impressive back-to-back road wins against the Pats and Titans in November, some began to fret about the scheduling nightmare that would arise if two New York teams that share a stadium in New Jersey end up hosting conference title games on the same day.
Then the bottom fell out for the Jets, claiming coach Eric Mangini’s job.
This year, more money has been spent and the draft has brought a young, fresh-faced quarterback who’ll be counted on to conjure memories of Joe Namath. So the expectations will be high again.
But high expectations in 2009 would be even more unrealistic than they were in 2008.
If Brady is healthy, the Pats will be very tough to overcome for the division crown. So then the question becomes whether the Jets will be able to beat out the likes of the Steelers or the Ravens (whichever one doesn’t win the division) and the second-place team in the AFC South for the two wild-card berths. Given that the teams of the AFC East face a much tougher slate of games this year, playing each of the teams of the AFC South and the NFC South, it will be harder to compete in the standings with the teams of the AFC North (who play the teams of the AFC West and the NFC North) and the teams of the AFC South (who play the teams of the NFC West).
With a new head coach, defensive coordinator and quarterback and a thin receiving corps and two tailbacks who are skipping underwear practices because they want more money, the Jets would be better off targeting 2010 as the year in which they return to the tournament.
The good news for the Broncos is they play in a bad division.
The bad news for the Broncos is they’re a lot worse than they were in 2008.
Weeks after the fact, the decision to trade quarterback Jay Cutler remains vexing. Regardless of whether coach Josh McDaniels decided he preferred Matt Cassel or whether McDaniels simply didn’t want Cutler or whether Cutler simply didn’t want McDaniels, a team should not be giving up a young franchise quarterback for any amount of draft picks or players.
So now the job falls to Kyle Orton, who couldn’t do much of anything on a Bears team that had an excellent defense. He’ll likely have an even harder time on a team with a mediocre defense.
But, hey, at least they have more tailbacks than former Broncos tailback Travis Henry has kids.
Here’s a fairly safe rule of thumb for assessing how a pro football team feels about its chances for the coming season.
If the team in question makes more than one attempt to acquire a new starting quarterback, it’s safe to conclude that the team doesn’t believe that its current starter is good enough to get the team to the playoffs.
The Redskins attempted to trade for former Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler, and then the Redskins tried to draft former USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.
They failed on both accounts, and so they’re stuck with Jason Campbell. And if they don’t believe they can win with Campbell, why should anyone else?
Fueled by the return to health of quarterback Carson Palmer, the retention of running back Cedric Benson, the replacement of one receiver with a hard-to-spell name (T.J. Houshmandzadeh) with another one (Laveranues Coles), the arrival of perennial Pro Bowl safety Roy Williams, and an unlikely selection to serve as the featured team on NFL Films’ Hard Knocks series, there’s a feeling that the Bengals can rebound dramatically in 2009, like the Dolphins, Ravens, and Falcons did in 2008.
At times, I agree with the notion that, with Palmer available all season, the Bengals can be much better than they were in 2008.
But will that be enough to overcome the Steelers and the Ravens?
That’s the primary problem — the Bengals find themselves in the same division as last year’s AFC finalists. Thus, unless Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger or Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco become plagued by the same kind of injury issues that limited Cincinnati to a four-win season, the Bengals would have to qualify as the second wild-card team — from the position of third place in their division.
So while the Bengals might be good this year, there likely will be too many other good teams.
With an unprecedented number of Super Bowl-winning coaches expected to be in the mix for new jobs in 2010, the hot seats will be hotter than ever.
And the seats don’t get much hotter than they do under Sean Payton, head coach of the Saints.
After starting his career in New Orleans with the franchise’s first-ever berth in an NFC title game, Payton’s Saints have missed the playoffs twice in a row.
A similar pattern already has gotten Eric Mangini fired by the Jets; thus, Payton surely fears that, if he doesn’t turn things around in 2009, he’ll possibly be looking for new work soon.
While there’s reason to believe the Saints will be as good if not better than they were last season, they face a tall order in a tougher-than-advertised NFC South. The Falcons likely weren’t flashes in the pan, and the Panthers apparently will continue to be competitive.
So if the Saints can’t overcome the two division rivals they weren’t able to overcome a year ago, they’ll then have to navigate the mine field of second-place (and possibly third-place) teams in a top-heavy NFC for one of the two wild-card spots.
With no tailback on board who can replace Deuce McAllister and a draft class grossly undermined by last year’s trades for linebacker Jonathan Vilma and tight end Jeremy Shockey, it’s looking like 2009 could be another year that conjures memories of all those seasons in the 1970s and most of those seasons in the 1980s and 1990s that resulted in Saints players watching playoff action not from the sidelines, but from their living rooms.
The Packers followed a 2007 season capped by an outcome that far exceeded all expectations with a messy divorce from Brett Favre and a disastrous 2008 campaign.
The defense took the fall for the team’s failures, and the resulting overhaul of the coaching staff also triggered a change in the philosophy from a 4-3 to 3-4.
It’s not an easy switch to make absent the personnel to do it correctly. Though the Packers managed to land two key pieces of the puzzle — nose tackle B.J. Raji and linebacker Clay Matthews — in the draft’s first round, it’s simply too much to expect the defense to perform at a playoff-caliber level in the first year it’s used.
Then there’s the fact the offensive line has some lingering question marks, and the running game could use some extra beef.
Put it all together, and it’s unlikely the Packers will fend off the Bears and the Vikings for the NFC North crown.
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